Forrester declares tech downturn ‘officially over’
January 13, 2010 by Valerie HelmbreckPosted in: Budgets and spending, Hardware, In this week's e-newsletter, Latest News & Views, Software
The past year may have been a dismal one for the tech sector, but analysts at Forrester Research, Inc., say 2010 will be a rebound year for spending in the industry. Let’s hope they’re right.
According to a new report just issued by the Massachusetts-based tech experts, the technology sector will see a recovery in 2010 as businesses and governments both in the U.S. and abroad begin spending again on information technology.
After a drop of 8.2%in 2009, domestic IT spending will grow 6.6% in 2010 to $568 billion, say the pros at Forrester.
Global IT spending, which plummeted 8.9% last year, will go up nearly the same amount — 8.1% in 2010 to more than $1.6 trillion.
But it will be in software and computer hardware that you can expect to see the biggest growth. Forrester predicts a new era of tech investment and innovation that should last over a number of years.
They’re estimating that global purchases of computer equipment should go up by about 8.2%, and communications equipment purchases should rise by 7.6%.
Other Forrester predictions:
- Software buying should rise by 9.7%
- Purchases of IT consulting and systems integration services is set to increase by 6.8%, and
- IT outsourcing services should be 7.1% more than the previous year.
Where will tech perform best? Europe, more specifically Western and Central regions of the continent where where tech buying will rise by 11.2% (boosted by the dollar’s decline against the Euro.)
U.S. neighbors to the north in Canada are predicted to increase their IT spending by 9.9%, while Asia Pacific will see a modest 7.8% upturn and Latin America will experience a 7.7% boost.
The slowest spending increases will be in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, where tech spending is only predicted to go up by a weak 2.4%.
“The technology downturn of 2008 and 2009 is unofficially over,” said Andrew Bartels, Forrester Research vice president and principal analyst. “All the pieces are in place for a 2010 tech spending rebound. In the US, the tech recovery will be much stronger than the overall economic recovery, with technology spending growing at more than twice the rate of gross domestic product (GDP) this year.”
The big question: Are IT leaders seeing the slack in their budgets to make this spending happen? While the need for tech spending my be increasing as legacy systems age, software needs increase and storage demands soar, it remains to be seen if businesses, government and other organizations will have the cash flow and credit to make this spending actually happen.
What’s your take on this forecast?
For more information or to get the report, visit Forrester’s Web site.
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January 19th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Tell that to some of my friends, who have been out of work for 12 months or more. Some have settled for low-paying entry-level jobs, but not doing what they were doing before, nor making what they were making before.
Everyone I know says their IT budget has been drastically cut for 2010. Most companies are in little more than “keep the lights on” mode from an IT standpoint.
There are widespread tales of no bonuses, no raises, and no capital expenditures — just like the millenium tech crash, post 2001. We didn’t see any real movement in the market until 2006 — 4 full years after the “dot bomb” settled.
With unemployment at nearly 10%, you can think to yourself that this means about 10% less demand for commoditized IT skillsets.
I think the difference this time around is that there are opportunities for consulting as well as niche IT skillsets to provide sector-specific business / IT support, where post-dot-bomb, IT was on “hard lockdown”.
Assuming that the so-called recovery continues to drag on, I would not expect any relief in the IT market until 2012.