You think mobile data traffic is jammed these days? Just wait, say the folks at Cisco. The global networking giant says worldwide global mobile data traffic will grow 108% a year for at least the next four years.

These are the results of the company’s Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Forecast for 2009-2014.

The research projects that annual global mobile data traffic will reach 3.6 exabytes per month or an annual run rate of 40 exabytes by 2014.  This means a 39-fold increase from 2009 to 2014, or a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 108%.

Two major global trends are driving the data traffic boom: the explosion of mobile-ready devices and the hunger for mobile video content.

According to Cisco’s report, by 2014, there could be over 5 billion personal devices connecting to mobile networks — and billions more machine-to-machine nodes.

Mobile video is projected by the study to represent 66% of all mobile data traffic by 2014, increasing 66-fold from 2009 to 2014. That’s the highest growth rate of any mobile data application tracked in the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Forecast.

“Mobile data traffic is growing faster than expected five years ago,” said Doug Webster, senior director, service provider marketing, Cisco. “The rapid consumer adoption of smart phones, netbooks, e-readers and Web-ready video cameras as well as machine-to-machine applications like eHealth monitoring and asset-tracking systems, is continuing to place unprecedented demands on mobile networks.  In spite of the economic downturn, the demand for mobile services has remained high, posing both challenges and opportunities for service providers worldwide,” Webster said.

Also in the report:

• Global mobile data traffic has increased by 160% over the past year to 90 petabytes per month, or the equivalent of 23 million DVDs.
• Global mobile data traffic today is growing today 2.4 times faster than global fixed broadband data traffic.
• Smartphones and laptop air cards will likely be responsible for more than 90%of global mobile traffic by 2014.
• By 2014, more than 400 million of the world’s Internet users could access the network solely through a mobile connection.
• Today, the average mobile broadband connection generates 1.3 gigabytes of traffic per month, which is equivalent to about 650 MP3 music files. By 2014, the average mobile broadband connection is projected to generate 7 gigabytes of traffic per month, which is equivalent to about 3,500 MP3 music files.
• The Middle East and Africa is expected to have the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rate, with a CAGR of 133% over the forecast period.  Asia-Pacific is projected to have a 119 % CAGR, followed by North America with a 117% CAGR.  India is expected to the highest country mobile data traffic growth rate of any country, with a CAGR of 222% for the forecast period, followed by China with a 172% CAGR and South Africa with a 156% CAGR.  In many countries, mobile operators are already offering mobile broadband services at prices and speeds comparable to fixed broadband which is accounting for high growth rates.

Most, if not all wireless carriers are investing heavily in upgrading their capacity to meet the coming boom. But will they be in time and will their efforts be enough to cope with the demand? If they aren’t, mobile users could face some serious gridlock in the years to come.

Tags: Cisco, data, growth, mobile, research, traffic, wireless