Things could get worse for the IT industry, but it’s tough to imagine how.

After its worst year ever, however, analysts say spending in the sector should grow by a modest 3.3% next year. The question remains, however: On what?

Look, any growth at all is reason to cheer after watching IT spending plummet 6.8% in the past year. Analysts at Gartner say the IT industry will return to growth with 2010, but that growth will be modest — especially in the United States.

Gartner provided the latest outlook for the IT industry during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, which is going on in Orlando through October 22.

And while these pros are predicting growth in the sector, they’re warning IT leaders not to be overly optimistic.

“While the IT industry will return to growth in 2010, the market will not recover to 2008 revenue levels before 2012,” said Peter Sondergaard, senior vice president at Gartner and global head of Research. “2010 is about balancing the focus on cost, risk, and growth. For more than 50 percent of CIOs the IT budget will be 0 percent or less in growth terms. It will only slowly improve in 2011.”

One big concern: The recession’s forced many IT managers and CIOs to put off replacing old servers and hardware.

With delayed purchases likely to continue into 2010, organizations need to start worrying about the impact of procrastination.

Gartner analysts say nearly 1 million servers have had their replacements delayed by a year. (That’s a little over 3% of the worldwide installed base.)  In 2010, it will be at least 2 million.

“If replacement cycles do not change, almost 10% of the server installed base will be beyond scheduled replacement in 2011,” Sondergaard said. “That will impact enterprise risk. CFOs need to understand this dynamic, and it’s the responsibility of the CIO to convey this in a way the CFO understands.”

The problem isn’t only with equipment failure. It’s also about the ability to keep up with the growing demands organizations are putting on their infrastructure. As data storage needs skyrocket and applications continue to demand more processing power and memory, upgrade and replacement delays will take their toll on end users and productivity.

In other words, now might be the time to prepare your money folks that postponing replacements could be penny wise and pound foolish.

Tags: Gartner, Hardware, IT spending, servers